Thursday, 15 July 2010

ESRI says 120,000 will emigrate by end of 2011

There was a new sound on Morning Ireland yesterday. It was Brian Cowen’s newly animated, and painfully forced, upbeat “we’re out of recession” voice.

We know that the official “out of recession” stats are founded on GDP figures, based on exports created predominantly by the multinationals.  For the first quarter of 2010 GDP weighed in at +2.7% compared with the previous three months of 2009.  However, GNP - which measures only indigenous business - still fell by 0.5% in the same period (Irish Times report, 1st July).

Yesterday, the ESRI forecast that unemployment will continue unabated and predicts 120,000 people will emigrate by the end of next year.  But we’re out of recession, officially.  And what is official, as opposed to what is reality, is all that matters in Ireland.

It’s funny, the last time I heard, unemployment was increasing. So considering there will be more people on the dole, the banks are not lending, and fewer people are working - with a greater burden on public finances - you might wonder what will drive any real domestic recovery?

Also, according to the same ESRI report, Ireland’s budget deficit is expected to rise from a predicted 12% (last April) up to 20% of GDP figures, mainly due to Eurostat rightly reclassifiying the bank bail-outs as government expenditure rather than investment.  And remember that GDP figures are an exaggerated measure of the true performance of the real economy.

Cowen can sound as cheery as he likes, but it's only to drown out the fact that he's splashing about in brown stuff of his very own manufacture without the benefit of a paddle.

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Anonymous said...

hi mr GM . biffo and minister martin will have oirland humming along this time next year and biffo will stand for a BRILLIANT INGENIOUS FIANNA FAIL OIRISHMAN mm martin will be hanging on everybodys kitchen next to jfk such brilliance, as for the 120000 departing the country has too many people anyway as per fianna fail. it will also be easier to get a pint at 1 minute to eleven BH

Der Wanderer said...

That´s a sad fact, 5000 people per month leaving the country.

Ella said...

@ Der Wanderer, "that's a sad fact, 5000 people per month leaving the country" I don't agree, not if they are FF voters.

Dakota said...

Its the Irish safety valve. The powers that be should patent the idea.

The Gombeen Man said...

@ BH, Ella. Yes, 120,000 less FF-ers would be no bad thing. Also, I wonder how many anti-immigration Irish will be among that number? If it's a younger demographic (and it will be) I'd say quite a few. Ironic, eh?

@ Dakota, The Wanderer. Yes, people have always been the true Irish export, along with stout - and it is, as you say D, a conscious safety valve utilised by the PTB.

Sure wasn't I one myself, in an earlier life. As were and are many of the blog's good readers. It's real deja vu.